Making Sense: In Brief
The week ahead for markets and the economy
Phil: Last week, markets digested a 25-basis-point Fed hike, along with a much stronger than expected employment report—all amid earnings season. Looking to the week ahead, it's not as event driven as last week, but still important.
On Friday, February's University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is released. Since bottoming last June, sentiment has improved modestly but remains well below the 2021 level. In Friday's report, consensus expects sentiment to hold fairly steady. The report also contains details of consumer inflation expectations at both 1 year ahead and 5 to 10 year ahead in the future. Both have fallen notably since peaking last year. We hope to see this trend continue in Friday's report.
Moving on, weekly initial jobless claims is a measure we don't often have time to highlight, but it is important. The data comes out each Thursday morning. Jobless claims have trended lower in recent months and currently stand near the lows we saw prior to the pandemic. The low level of claims is one more indicator of the resiliency of the labor market, despite a slowing economy.
As we have highlighted in recent weeks, fourth quarter earnings season continues. Earnings season has been mixed. Seventy percent have beaten earnings expectations—a lower level than in recent quarters. Also, downward earnings revisions persist.
So items to watch this week. One, consumer sentiment. Two, initial jobless claims. Three, earnings season.
Making Sense In Brief Outro Slide
Brent Ciliano
CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer
Capital Management Group | Ed National Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
brent.ciliano@ednationa.com | 919-716-2650
Phillip Neuhart SVP, Director of Market and Economic Research
Capital Management Group | Ed National Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
phillip.neuhart@ednationa.com | 919-716-2403
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